FRI: In-season Forecast Update thru July 4

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Read the full in-season forecast presentation HERE. Data presented is as of July 4, 2023, figures are subject to change as the season progresses.

The Cliff Notes:

  • Forecast is quite accurate thus far with respect to run size and district, but age composition is different than expected.

  • Current cumulative catch+escapement (C+E) is VERY CLOSE to expectations for this date given average run timing for a run at our preseason forecast of 50M

  • Genetic composition of PMTF catches don’t suggest any major difference from preseason forecast proportion by district.

  • Fewer 1.2 sockeye showing up than forecast, but more 2.3 sockeye. However, proportion of 1.2 sockeye are increasing in more recent age comp surveys.

  • Current daily PMTF indices indicate a midpoint (i.e. “peak”) in passage close to the average of June 29-30, suggesting average run timing inshore and a median date for inshore C+E of July 7.