Forecasts Predict Large Run in 2021

Forecasts for the 2021 Bristol Bay sockeye run have recently been released from the Alaska Department of Fish & Game (ADF&G) and the University of Washington’s (UW) Alaska Salmon Program. The forecasts are very similar this year, with the ADF&G forecast projects an inshore run of 50.04 million sockeye and a harvest of 36.35 million sockeye in Bristol Bay, while the UW forecast projects an inshore run of 50.90 sockeye and a harvest of 36.90 million sockeye.

The forecasts, including district-level and age-class predictions, can be viewed at the links below:

ADF&G 2020 Bristol Bay Sockeye Forecast: LINK
UW 2020 Bristol Bay Sockeye Forecast: LINK

The UW’s 2021 forecast includes insights and modeling tweaks gained from applying machine learning and artificial intelligence technologies, a project which was commissioned by BBRSDA. More information about that effort can be found in this VIDEO PRESENTATION and PROJECT SUMMARY REPORT. Project staff have The draft manuscript is currently in review by the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) and project staff hope to publish the full study results in an academic journal.