2016 Bristol Bay Sockeye Salmon Forecast

A total of 46.55 million sockeye salmon (range 36.67–56.44 million) are expected to return to Bristol Bay in 2016. This prediction is 15% greater than the previous 10-year mean of total runs and 41% greater than the long-term mean of 32.94 million. All systems are expected to meet their spawning escapement goals.

A run of 46.55 million sockeye salmon can produce a potential total harvest of 31.24 million fish. The projected harvest includes 29.52 million fish in Bristol Bay and 1.72 million fish in the South Peninsula fisheries. A Bristol Bay harvest of 29.52 million would be 8% greater than the previous 10-year mean harvest (27.32 million; range of 15.42 million to 36.45 million), and 46% greater than the long-term mean harvest of 20.20 million.